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Guided by the principle of leaving no one behind by improving equitable access and use of new and existing vaccines, the Immunization Agenda 2030 aims, among other things, to halve the incidence of "zero-dose" at the national level. This study aimed at studying the tends of the prevalence of "zerodose" children from 2000 to 2017 and making predictions for 2030. The study consisted of secondary data analyses from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) conducted in Togo. The study population consisted of children aged 12-23 months surveyed during MICS2 in 2000, MICS3 in 2006, MICS4 in 2010 and MICS6 in 2017. The dependent variable was the "zero-dose" vaccination status (1=Yes vs 0=No). The explanatory variables were related to the child, mother, household and environment. The study generated the overall annual percentage changes (APC) and by the independent variables. As a result, the prevalence of children with "zero-dose" expected for 2030 was estimated using Excel 2013 and Stata 16.0 software. In total, 636, 864, 916 and 952 children aged 12-23 months were included for MICS2, MICS3, MICS4 and MICS7, respectively. The prevalence of "zerodose" children decreased from 37.15% in 2000 to 31.72% in 2006, then 30.10% in 2010 and 26.86% in 2017, with an overall APC= - 1.89%. The highest relative annual decrease was from 2000 to 2006. If the historical rate of decrease remains unchanged, we predict that percentage of "zero-dose" children aged 12-23 months will be 20.96% in 2030, with a decrease of 22% compared to 2017, against a target of 50%. We suggest that strengthening strategies to increase full immunization coverage of children will contribute to reducing the percentage of zero dose children. A prerequisite will be a better understanding of the predictors of the "zero-dose" phenomenon in children
Subject(s)
Humans , Child , Child Health , Vaccination Coverage , Immunization , VaccinationABSTRACT
Objective : To establish a practical data-driven method that helps predict the evolutionary trend of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic, track and prejudge the current risk classification of the epidemic area, and provide a quantitative evidence for precision prevention and control strategies. Methods ¡¤ A moving average prediction limit (MAPL) method was established based on the moving average method. The previous severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic data was used to verify the practicability of the MAPL method for predicting epidemic trends and quantitative risk. By tracking the COVID-19 outbreak epidemic data publicly reported since January 16, 2020, the MAPL method was used for timely epidemic trend prediction and the risk classification. Results ¡¤ According to the MAPL analysis, the na-tional epidemic of COVID-19 peaked in early February 2020. After active prevention and control in early stages, the overall epidemic situation in the country showed a downward trend from mid-February to mid-March. Compared with Hubei Province, the number of new cases in non-Hubei region declined rapidly in mid-February, but then increased slightly. The analysis of imported cases since March showed that there was a medium to high level of epidemic import risk in the near future. It is recommended to take corresponding prevention and control measures to prevent the epidemic from spreading again. Conclusion ¡¤ The MAPL method can assist in judging the epidemic trend of emerging infectious diseases and predicting the risk levels in a timely manner. Each epidemic district may implement a differentiated precision prevention and control strategies according to the local classification of epidemic risk. Since March, attention should be paid to the prevention and control of imported risks.
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@# Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Jiamusi city, and predict the incidence trend, so as to provide evidence for taking targeted prevention and control measures in the cold areas in Heilongjiang Province. Methods The mumps cases were collected from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention in Jiamusi city from 2004 to 2017.Descriptive epidemiologic method was used for analyzing the epidemic of mumps in Jiamusi city during 2004-2017, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to forecast the incidence of mumps in 2018. Results A total of 1 586 cases of mumps were reported in Jiamusi city during 2004-2017, the average annual incidence rate was 4.52/100 000. The incidence of mumps increased year by year from 2015 to 2017.The ratio of male to female was 1.67 :1,those aged from 3 to 19 years accounted for 86.32% of the total cases, the higher incidence rates were found at the age of 5-9 and 10-14 years.The incidence of mumps presented obviously seasonal characteristics.Most cases concentrated from April to July and from November to January. The incidence of urban disease was higher than that of other counties; The established finally mode was ARIMA(4,1,2)(2,0,0)12 and the predicted incidence from January 2018 to June 2018 was consistent with the actual one.From July 2018 to December 2018,predictive mumps incidence were:0.30/100 000, 0.35/100 000, 0.38/100 000, 0.39/100 000, 0.35/100 000, 0.33/100 000. Conclusions ARIMA model could predict the trend of mumps in Jiamusi city.To reduce the incidence of children, it is recommended to develop a second dose of mumps vaccine at the preschool age(3-6 years)or primary school;At the same time, surveillance and control should be continually strengthened in kindergartens and schools.
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Objective@#To learn the trend of death from injury in Fengcheng residents from 2009 to 2017 and predict from 2018 to 2021,in order to provide the basis for injury prevention and control. @*Methods@#All cause of death monitoring data and demographic data of Fengcheng from 2009 to 2017 were collected,injury mortality,standardized mortality and annual change percentage（APC）were calculated,and GM（1,1）was established to predict the injury mortality from 2018 to 2021. @*Results@#From 2009 to 2017,the injury death rate in Fengcheng was 52.68 per 100 000 and the standardized death rate was 46.50 per 100 000. The APC of the total standardized mortality was -5.10%,showing a decreasing trend year by year（P<0.05）. The injury mortality and standardized mortality in males were higher than that in female（both P <0.05）. The highest injury mortality lay in the group aged 65 years and above,which was 108.13 per 100 000. The top five causes of injury death were traffic accident,suiside,poisoning,fall and drowning,their mortality rate were 27.03 per 100 000,7.84 per 100 000,5.62 per 100 000,5.08 per 100 000 and 2.36 per 100 000,respectively. The mortality of traffic accident in males and suicide in females showed a decreasing trend（P<0.05）,while the mortality of fall showed an increasing trend（all P<0.05）. The model of GM（1,1）predicted that the injury mortality from 2018 to 2021 would be 48.00 per 100 000,44.15 per 100 000,40.61 per 100 000 and 37.35 per 100 000,which showed a decreasing trend year by year.@*Conclusion@#The injury death rates in Fengcheng dropp year by year from 2009 to 2017 and will probably keep dropping from 2018 to 2021. Men and people aged 65 years or over are at high risk of death from injury,traffic accident and fall are the main causes.
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The development trend, countries, institutions, co-authors, and subjects in MEDLINE-covered papers were analyzed by Excel, Ucinet and SciMAT respectively in order to understand the current situation in studies on precision medicine, which showed that precision medicine is in a rapid development stage, the impact power of pa-pers on precision medicine published in United States of America is high, the source journals published in United States of America are the core journals in precision medicine, the academic level of papers on precision medicine published in United States of America is high. Co-authors analysis showed that the co-authors network is of the small world effect. Subject evolution analysis revealed that the subjects involved in studies on precision medicine are increasingly rich with genomics, drug treatment and oncology accounted a large proportion. Analysis of the evo-lution in genomics, drug treatment and oncology displayed that the subjects involved in studies on precision medi-cine have experienced macro-stage, micro-stage, and combined macro- and micro-stage.